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    【觀察家】吳軍林:美麗斷崖——旅游行業、旅游產業、旅游事業的片刻回眸與瞭望

    時間:2022-11-30來源:世界酒店聯盟 作者:采編中心
      

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    從香港中國旅行社集團(港中旅)1928年成立以來,中國現代旅游業發展歷經近百年歷史,非常不容易,值得回望和研究。

    新中國成立以后的1971年周恩來總理主持召開全國旅游工作會議,中國旅游事業開始逐步得以恢復,到1976年,中國接待外國旅游者近5萬人次。到1977年,中國旅游涉外飯店有137座,客房1.5萬間,床位數3萬張,旅游業發展底子非常薄,全年來中國旅游入境人數為57萬人次,旅游創匯收入僅2.62億美元。

    1978年,中國中央政府成立中國旅行游覽事業管理總局(原國家旅游局),為國務院直屬單位。

    1979年,改革開放的中國在北戴河召開“撥亂反正”后的第一次全國旅游工作會議,決定在每個省市自治區直轄市建設一座“旅游涉外飯店”,旅游業開啟蓬勃發展模式,旅游行業開始定位為“中國改革開放的窗口行業”。

    此后的1980年創辦深圳經濟特區(市),1988年創立海南經濟特區(。┖1992年的鄧小平南巡及上海浦東乃至全國的全面經濟改革開放,都給中國旅游業經濟發展帶來了非常好的新機遇。1992年,中國第一批十二個“國家級旅游度假區”創立并推出,對中國傳統旅游業轉型升級做出了重大引導性行業經濟發展行動。

    1992年之后中國觀光旅游發展迅猛。1996年“中國休閑度假游”旅游年在海南啟幕,中國的休閑度假旅游經濟從“海南亞龍灣”起步一發而不可收拾。

    自1995年之后,中國旅游業經濟發展幾乎都是以兩位數字增長。中國旅游業在整個中國經濟大發展中真正起到了“先導”和“帶動”作用,中國旅游行業、中國旅游產業和中國旅游事業真的是蒸蒸日上。

    在中國改革開放的四十多年時間里,中國旅游業發展的關聯度和貢獻率是別的行業不可替代的。因為旅游業的獨特性和文化社會屬性非常強,所以西方國家特別重視旅游行業、旅游產業和旅游事業的發展,比如:美國、英國、法國、德國、日本等這些西方列強都是“旅游和文化融合滲透的高手”。

    1993年初,本人進入海南省旅游局工作,一路走來,近30年沒有離開過旅游行業,應該是對中國現代旅游業發展的全過程有一個基本了解。我非常熱愛旅游行業工作,在二三十年的工作時間里寫過不少關于酒店行業和旅游景區投資經營方面的文章,在政府部門和大型企業工作的市場一線統計過不少旅游行業現實數據,如:《海南旅游行業市場調查報告》、《飯店業投資與管理》、以及連續三年編寫了《世界酒店•軍林報告》(年度白皮書)等等。

    2019年前的中國旅游業經濟,它無論是每年以兩位數字增長,還是在全國經濟總量中綜合貢獻率占百分之十以上,中國旅游業經濟在世界旅游業經濟發展中都占有非常重要的位置。我們可以想象一下,一個世界第一的旅游輸出國和世界第四的旅游輸入國對世界旅游業經濟作出過多大的貢獻?

    2009年,中國國務院【國辦發】41號文件《關于加快發展旅游業的意見》“總體要求”中非常明確地寫到:“把旅游業培育成國民經濟的戰略性支柱產業和人民群眾更加滿意的現代服務業”。2019年中國國務院【國辦發】41號文件《關于進一步激發文化和旅游消費潛力的意見》中特別強調:“以習近平新時代中國特色社會主義思想為指導,順應文化和旅游消費提質轉型升級新趨勢,深化文化和旅游領域供給側結構性改革,從供需兩端發力,不斷激發文化和旅游消費潛力。努力使我國文化和旅游消費設施更加完善,消費結構更加合理,消費環境更加優化,文化和旅游產品、服務供給更加豐富。推動全國居民文化和旅游消費規模保持快速增長態勢,對經濟增長的帶動作用持續增強”。

    從這兩個重要文件中可以看出,中國中央政府對旅游行業宏觀發展,對旅游產業具體運營,對旅游業事業長遠布局是很重視的。

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    然而,時間進入2020年,一場突如其來的“新冠病毒疫情”把整個中國乃至全球旅游業現狀“砸的稀巴爛”。整整三年,我們有多少期待和失望?有多少痛楚和夢想之微光……?三年來,中國旅游業經濟發展現狀簡直是全面的“斷崖式墜落”,幾乎是墜落到了懸崖之下的海平面。

    當我們出行在美麗的風景中時,突然有關方面告知大家要集中隔離;

    當我們在美好的相聚中時,手機突然收到各種等級的“彈窗”或“黃碼”、“紅碼”;

    當我們在重要項目即將會談和簽約落地時,單位突然接到各級通知大家要居家封控,不能出門……

    等等這些,讓無數的我們極其無奈地“老老實實”地停下腳步,暫停一切“工作著,旅游著,快樂著”!期盼的望眼中,眾多方面的旅游產業經濟開始“美麗斷崖”式墜落再墜落……

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    2022年末的今天,我們不需要再看到所謂的“形象和高光”的數字及中英文對照的圖表,眾所周知,當下許多漂亮的數字及圖表都是虛假的“應時之作”。因為旅游產業關聯度非常高,“吃住行游購娛”六要素中幾乎涵蓋了全部的社會供需消費需求,中國旅游產業經濟發展是拉動內需的最有效的“發動機”,“雙循環”中的“內循環”在未來三五年極其重要!

    前幾天,我看到了中國旅游協會副會長兼秘書長張潤鋼新寫的一篇文章,里面已經很認真地闡述一些新觀點和發布了不少新數據,令中國旅游從業人員有多警醒。如果說,中國旅游航業企業總量有100萬家(包括賓館酒店、景區景點、旅行社、車船公司、餐飲店、中介服務和各類配套企業等等),那么現實存活的企業數可能不到50%了(前不久我看到一個數據,說新冠疫情三年來全國餐飲行業企業已經倒閉了49萬多家)。

    拋開諸多數據不提,在此,我們很有必要向中央最高層呼吁一下,國家的文旅部中應該增設一個“旅游事業管理局”(由某副部長兼任局長),就像中宣部內有一個“電影局”一樣,中國旅游事業是國家對外政治經濟文化發展中非常重要一個方面。

    當前,我們試想一下,新冠病毒疫情防控下的三年里,如果沒有了人流動和交互,沒有人的“旅游著”的快樂參與和面對面的經濟往來,怎么可能有龐大的占國民生產總值的11%強旅游業綜合貢獻率?十幾萬億“經濟創造”還會在哪里?全國還有8000萬至1個億的“大旅游從業者”目前怎么工作和未來怎么活下去?

    大家都說2022年是最難的一年!然而,2022年即將過去,老百姓和旅游從業者依然沒有看到“中國旅游事業”的“旭日冉冉升起”,因為,大家日常的面對依然是三天兩頭的封控和幾乎是天天的“核酸檢測”……

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    大家每天在算賬:核酸檢測沒完沒了和經常性的不能出門忙工作業務,整個旅游產業經濟可能就毀了,旅游行業經濟毀了就沒有了旅游行業,沒有了旅游行業那么整個國家的“旅游事業”也就沒了。毀掉一件東西很容易,但人民的“美麗事業”和“美好江山”毀了就得不償失了。

    全國旅游行業工作者,長時間在沉重、忍耐和痛楚中爬行著……然而,即便是“旅游事業”斷崖式墜落到了海平面,我們依然還會堅持理想信念,還是會相信我們的中央政府!相信腳底下還有孕育無窮生命力之大海和大地呢。

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    今天,我們在預測著未來三個月或者是最長六個月,新冠病毒疫情會逐漸好轉,“核酸檢測”和“疫情防控封控”會徹底消失。如果真是這樣,那么中國旅游事業還是有救的,否則那些個巨大的酒店集團,龐大的旅游景區集群,以及眾多特色旅游小鎮、美麗鄉村、全域旅游勝地和欣欣向榮的“金山銀山”都將是““水月鏡花”和“空中樓閣”。最后,2022年的全國旅游業經濟發展數據將會是百分之零點幾或百分之幾?誰也說不清楚。同樣,未來因為新冠疫情帶來的旅游業“次生災害”有多大?誰也說不清楚。

    總之,我和我們十分期待2023年鮮活的春天或生機勃勃的夏天來臨;我和我們十分期待中國旅游事業的鮮活春天和生機勃勃的夏天盡快回來……

    2022.11.30于海南

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    吳軍林:著名文旅專家、世界酒店聯盟主席、聯合國經社部國際旅游與酒店聯合總會執行主席、中愛國際文旅集團董事會主席

     

    Beautiful Cliff -- A Moment Review and Outlook of Tourism Industry, Tourism Industry and Tourism

    Since the establishment of Hong Kong China Travel Service Group (Hong Kong China Travel Service) in 1928, the development of China's modern tourism industry has experienced nearly a hundred years of history, which is very difficult and worth looking back and studying.

    After the founding of the People's Republic of China, Premier Zhou Enlai presided over the National Tourism Conference in 1971. China's tourism industry began to recover gradually. By 1976, China had received nearly 50000 foreign tourists. By 1977, there were 137 foreign-related hotels in China, 15000 guest rooms and 30000 beds. The foundation of tourism development was very thin. The number of inbound tourists to China throughout the year was 570000, and the tourism income was only 262 million dollars.

    In 1978, the Central Government of China established the China Tourism Administration (formerly the National Tourism Administration) as a unit directly under the State Council.

    In 1979, the reform and opening up China held the first national tourism working conference in Beidaihe after "bringing order out of chaos". It was decided to build a "tourist hotel" in each province, municipality, autonomous region and municipality directly under the Central Government. The tourism industry started to develop vigorously. The tourism industry began to position itself as "the window industry of China's reform and opening up".

    Since then, the establishment of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (City) in 1980, Hainan Special Economic Zone (Province) in 1988, Deng Xiaoping's inspection tour to the south in 1992 and the comprehensive economic reform and opening up in Pudong, Shanghai and even the whole country have all brought great new opportunities to the economic development of China's tourism industry. In 1992, the first batch of 12 "national tourist resorts" in China were founded and launched, which made a significant guiding industrial economic development action for the transformation and upgrading of China's traditional tourism industry.

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    After 1992, China's tourism has developed rapidly. In 1996, the "China Leisure and Holiday Tourism" tourism year was launched in Hainan. China's leisure and holiday tourism economy started from the "Hainan Yalong Bay" and became uncontrollable.

    Since 1995, the economic development of China's tourism industry has almost always increased by two figures. China's tourism industry has really played a "leading" and "driving" role in the overall development of China's economy, and China's tourism industry, tourism industry and tourism industry are really thriving.

    During more than 40 years of China's reform and opening up, the relevance and contribution rate of China's tourism development are irreplaceable by other industries. Because of the uniqueness and strong cultural and social attributes of tourism, western countries pay special attention to the development of tourism industry, tourism industry and tourism. For example, the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Japan and other western powers are "masters of tourism and cultural integration".

    In the spring of 1993, I joined Hainan Provincial Tourism Administration and worked all the way. I haven't left the tourism industry in the past 30 years. I should have a basic understanding of the whole process of China's modern tourism development. I love my work in the tourism industry very much. I have written a lot of articles about the hotel industry and the investment and management of tourist attractions in my 20 to 30 years of work. I have made statistics on the real data of the tourism industry in the front line of the market where government departments and large enterprises work, such as Hainan Tourism Industry Market Survey, Hotel Industry Investment and Management As well as preparing the World Hotel • Military Forest Report (annual white paper) for three consecutive years.

    Before 2019, China's tourism economy has played a very important role in the development of the world's tourism economy, whether it is growing by two figures every year or accounting for more than 10% of the total national economy. Can we imagine how much a world's first tourism exporting country and the world's fourth tourism importing country will contribute to the world tourism economy?

    In 2009, the General Requirements of the Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Tourism (GBF No. 41) issued by the State Council of China clearly stated that "tourism should be cultivated into a strategic pillar industry of the national economy and a modern service industry more satisfactory to the people". In 2019, the Opinions on Further Stimulating the Potential of Cultural and Tourism Consumption (GBF No. 41) of the State Council of China emphasized that:   Rich. We will continue to promote the rapid growth of the scale of residents' culture and tourism consumption across the country, and continue to enhance its role in driving economic growth. ".

    It can be seen from these two important documents that the Chinese central government attaches great importance to the macro development of the tourism industry, the specific operation of the tourism industry, and the long-term layout of the tourism industry.

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    However, in 2020, a sudden "COVID-19 epidemic" smashed the status quo of the whole China and even the global tourism industry. How many expectations and disappointments have we had in the past three years? How much pain and the glimmer of dreams? Over the past three years, China's tourism economy has developed in a comprehensive way, falling almost to the sea level below the cliff.

    When we were traveling in the beautiful scenery, suddenly the relevant parties told us to concentrate on isolation;

    When we were together, the mobile phone suddenly received various levels of "pop-up" or "yellow code", "red code";

    When we were about to discuss and sign an important project, the unit suddenly received a notice from all levels that everyone should stay at home and not go out

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    And so on, let countless of us very reluctantly "honestly" stop, pause everything "working, traveling, happy"! In the eyes of expectation, the economy of tourism industry in many aspects began to fall down again like a "beautiful cliff"

    At the end of 2022, we do not need to see the so-called "image and highlight" figures and Chinese English charts. As we all know, many beautiful figures and charts are false "timely works". Because the tourism industry is highly related, the six elements of "food, housing, travel, shopping and entertainment" almost cover all the social demand, supply and consumption. The economic development of China's tourism industry is the most effective "engine" to stimulate domestic demand, and the "inner cycle" in the "double cycle" will be extremely important in the next three to five years!

    A few days ago, I saw a new article written by Zhang Rungang, vice president and secretary-general of the China Tourism Association, which has seriously expounded some new ideas and released a lot of new data, which has alerted Chinese tourism practitioners. If the total number of Chinese tourism and shipping enterprises is 1 million (including hotels, scenic spots, travel agencies, vehicle and ship companies, catering stores, intermediary services and various supporting enterprises, etc.), the number of surviving enterprises may be less than 50% (I saw a data not long ago that more than 490000 catering enterprises in China have closed down in the past three years due to the COVID-19).

    Leaving aside many data, it is necessary for us to appeal to the highest level of the central government that a "Tourism Administration" (with a vice minister as the director) should be added to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Just like a "Film Bureau" in the Propaganda Department of the Central Committee, China's tourism industry is a very important aspect of the country's foreign political, economic and cultural development.

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    At present, let's imagine that in the three years under the control of the COVID-19 epidemic, if there is no flow and interaction of people, no happy participation of "tourists" and face-to-face economic exchanges, how can there be a huge comprehensive contribution rate of tourism accounting for 11% of GDP? Where will the "economic creation" of more than 10 trillion yuan be? There are still 80 million to 100 million "big tourism practitioners" in China. How do they work now and survive in the future?

    Everyone says 2022 is the hardest year! However, the year 2022 is about to pass, and the common people and tourism practitioners still do not see the "rising sun" of "China's tourism", because the daily face of everyone is still a three-day containment and almost daily "nucleic acid detection"

    Everyone is counting every day: nucleic acid detection is endless and you can't go out to work frequently. The entire tourism industry economy may be destroyed. If the tourism industry economy is destroyed, there will be no tourism industry. Without the tourism industry, there will be no "tourism" in the whole country. It is easy to destroy something, but it is not worth the loss to destroy the people's "beautiful cause" and "beautiful country".

    Workers in the national tourism industry have been crawling in the heavy, patient and painful conditions for a long time... However, even if the "tourism industry" falls to the sea level like a precipice, we will still adhere to our ideals and beliefs and still believe in our central government! I believe that there is still the sea and the earth under my feet, which can breed infinite vitality.

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    Today, we are predicting that in the next three months or the longest six months, the COVID-19 epidemic will gradually improve, and the "nucleic acid detection" and "epidemic prevention and control" will completely disappear. If this is the case, then China's tourism industry will be saved. Otherwise, those huge hotel groups, huge clusters of tourist attractions, as well as many characteristic tourist towns, beautiful villages, global tourist attractions and the thriving "Jinshan Yinshan" will be "water moon mirror flowers" and "castle in the air". Finally, what percentage will the national tourism economic development data in 2022 be? No one can say clearly. Similarly, how many "secondary disasters" will be brought about by the COVID-19 epidemic in the tourism industry in the future? No one can say clearly.

    In short, we are looking forward to the arrival of the spring or the summer in 2023; We and I are looking forward to the bright spring and vibrant summer of China's tourism industry coming back as soon as possible

    2022.11.30 in Hainan

     

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