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【觀察家】吳軍林:全球不幸——三年內旅游業經濟將很難全面回升

時間:2021-12-01來源:世界酒店聯盟 作者:世界酒店聯盟
  
這幾個月來,很不愿意提筆寫文章,因全球新冠病毒疫情肆虐,看了太多的“病毒直接打擊和關聯傷害”的文字,心情非常不爽!最近,一種名為“奧密克戎”的更為兇險的病毒出現,讓世界旅游發達國家再次關閉國門。
 
直到今天,全球新冠病毒疫情累計病例將近3億人,因新冠病毒死亡的數字達到520多萬人,當然這只是表面數字,實際上新冠病毒患者和新冠病毒死亡者數字遠不止這些,還有那些“新冠病毒關聯災害”方面根本無法統計。
 
中國的經濟損失和全球的經濟損失在兩年時間里已經超過了“第二次世界大戰”的全面損失,特別是旅游業經濟損失慘重。
 
據總部設于西班牙馬德里的世界旅游組織預計,2021年全年全球國際游客接待規模仍將比2019年的峰值下降70%-75%,這意味著預期中的旅游市場復蘇仍未到來。于是,在去年損失了2萬億美元收入之后,今年全球旅游業將繼續蒙受2萬億美元的損失。而無論如何,旅游業早已是全球疫情中受沖擊最慘重的行業之一。世界旅游組織最近還發布:全球旅游人數2019年為15億人次,2021年將下降在4億人次左右。
 
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消毒隊伍對街道進行“地毯式”噴灑消毒

 

我認為世界旅游組織的有關發布和預測還是比較保守的,真實的“全球旅游業情況”應該更加困難。旅游業經濟發展是世界經濟繁榮的“排頭兵”,一個國家如果沒有繁榮與和平社會環境是不可能有旅游業經濟蓬勃發展的。在2020年之前,世界旅游業經濟給總體經濟貢獻率為10%(或者更多)。旅游行業從業人數占全球工作者人數約9% 左右。中國也是如此,長期以來,中國旅游業發展速度均有兩位數字的增長(即10%-13%),中國旅游業總體經濟收入給全國GDP貢獻率為9%—11%(2019年中國旅游經濟高于全國GDP增長。2019年,中國國內旅游人數60.06億人次,比上年同期增長8.4%;入出境旅游總人數3.0億人次,同比增長3.1%;全年實現旅游總收入6.63萬億元,同比增長11%。旅游業對全國GDP的綜合貢獻總值為10.94萬億元,占GDP總量的11.05%。2019年,國內旅游直接就業2825萬人,旅游直接和間接就業人數為7987萬人,占全國就業總人口的10.31%),這是2020年之前的三四十年中國旅游業快速發展歷史階段的總體數值。
 
突如其來的和不斷變異的新冠病毒給全球旅游業經濟予以重創。歐美、亞太、以及非洲這些貧窮國家旅游業經濟已經跌至冰點。中國旅游業經濟發展狀況基本回到了1983年之前。
 
盡管中國幾十年來旅游業投資開發創造了無數紅利,然而這些幾千億幾萬億的“旅游大躍進”投資和3萬多個景區、50多萬家酒店住宿設施及無數旅游業配套之關聯產品越來越難以承受其重!
 
自2020年以來,中國旅游業企業倒閉和歇業,以及轉型的應該有幾十萬家之多。特別是酒店和餐飲企業,它們的營收率基本在2019年總收入的百分之三四十這樣的層面徘徊,成本支出都無法保障。2021年下半年以來,長江以北的“北中國旅游業”全面虧損,長江以南的“南中國旅游業”也好不到哪里去。以最重要的海濱度假目的地“海南健康島”為例,2021年旅游業總收入將不會超過2019年旅游業總收入的40%,應該在300億—400億人民幣(海南省2019年GDP為5300多億元人民幣,旅游業總收入為1000多億元人民幣)。
 
這是一個非常不幸的現實,如果海南省、或者其他以旅游業為龍頭產業的海濱度假地區在今年底和明年春季沒有明顯的旅游經濟復蘇,那么,2022年的海南和其他地區的政府財政收入就非常吃緊。海南省如果沒有了房地產業綜合收入和旅游業綜合收入,那么它2021年全省GDP會減少約3000億元人民幣。試問,2022年海南省各級政府財政和公務員工資靠什么來支撐和貼補?國家能安排哪個“經濟強省”來“轉移支付”幫助“世界的海南自貿港”度過難關?
 
因為新冠病毒疫情還在繼續,新的“奧密克戎”變異病毒來勢兇猛,到目前為止,全球沒有一個國家研制出來特效藥,任何一個國家僅僅靠打疫苗來對付不停變異的病毒不是長久之計。
 

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旅游出入境的選擇不在輕易,讓國際游客為難與慎重對待
 
如果中國和其他國家無法開啟國門,那么就沒有國際旅游者往來和國際旅游業交易,中國旅游業發展不能僅靠內需拉動。據專家預測:中國以外的國家新冠病毒疫情在兩三年是難以全面控制和消除的。我個人認為,中國即便是在2022年全面控制和消除新冠病毒,已經元氣大傷的“中國旅游業經濟”在未來三年內是無法全面振興和回升到2018年—2019年的“高光時期”。
 
目前,美英等國家將會繼續不停地干擾中國經濟發展,將會繼續不停地尋找機會在中國旅游業復興道路上“制造病毒疫情麻煩”,這也將給中國,乃至全球旅游業經濟發展帶來無法預估的遲滯和破壞。中國曾經為世界第一大出境游和第三大入境游國家,沒有繁榮昌盛的“中國旅游”,世界旅游業經濟發展是不完整的,也是非常不幸的!
 
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地鐵站內等候的乘客按照一定距離站位

 

聯合國秘書長古特雷斯11月30日呼吁國際社會共同努力,實現旅游業綠色和包容性復蘇。古特雷斯當天在西班牙馬德里舉行的聯合國世界旅游組織第24屆全體大會視頻致辭中表示,新冠疫情對依賴旅游業的經濟體是一場災難。隨著全球經濟逐步重啟和復蘇,世界旅游組織應在重新思考旅游業及其與社會、經濟和自然資源以及生態系統的互動方面發揮關鍵作用。他強調,要發展綠色、包容性以及可持續的旅游業,以利于實現2030年可持續發展議程。古特雷斯說,希望大會做出的決定有助于恢復對旅游業的信任,使發展中經濟體能夠從可持續旅游業中受益。

 

盡管目前和未來發達國家對“數字化生存”和“高新科技發展”非常重視,然而,旅游業經濟的主體要素還是“吃住行游購娛”,沒有人和人的見面交流,沒有人和物的直接互動是不能完整展現“旅游業態”的。如果全世界沒有了旅游和旅游業經濟,那么“群星璀璨”的“世界多元民族文化”將會“黯淡無光”。如果全世界缺失了豐富多彩的文化,那么這個所謂“萬能無比”的“人類星球”就缺失了血肉和靈魂……
 

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吳軍林:著名文旅專家、世界酒店聯盟主席、聯合國經社部國際旅游與酒店聯合總會執行主席、中愛國際文旅集團董事會主席
 
 

 

Global misery — It will be difficult for the tourism economy to recover fully within three years

 

Writtten by Wu Junlin

 

In recent months, I am reluctant to write articles.Because of the worldwide COVID-19 epidemic, I read too many words related to "direct attack and associated injury".I'm in a bad mood. Recently, an even more sinister virus, Omicron, has shut down the world's tourism rich countries once again.

 

Today, there are nearly 300 million cumulative cases of the global COVID-19 epidemic. The number of people killed by COVID-19 has reached about 5200000. The impact of the "COVID-19 key disaster" is hard to predict.

 

In the past two years, China's economic losses and global economic losses have exceeded the comprehensive losses caused by the Second World War, and the economic losses of tourism are heavy.

 

According to the prediction of the world tourism organization headquartered in Madrid, Spain, the scale of global international tourist reception in 2021 will still be 70% - 75% lower than the peak in 2019, which means that the expected recovery of the tourism market has not yet come.Therefore, after losing $2 trillion in revenue last year, the global tourism industry will continue to suffer $2 trillion in losses this year.In any case, tourism has been one of the industries most affected by the global epidemic.The world tourism organization has also recently released information: in 2019, the number of global tourists will be 1.5 billion; In 2021, the decline rate will be about 400 million person times.

 

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The real global tourism situation is likely to be more difficult.Tourism economic development is the "vanguard" of world economic prosperity. Without a prosperous and peaceful social environment, it is impossible for a country to have a vigorous development of tourism economy.Before 2020, the contribution of the world tourism economy to the overall economy will accounted for 10% or more.The number of employees in the tourism industry accounts for about 9% of the number of workers in the world. The same is true of China. For a long time, the development speed of China's tourism industry has increased by double digits (10% - 13%), and the overall economic income of China's tourism industry accounts for 9% - 11% of the national GDP contribution rate(In 2019, the growth of China's tourism economy is higher than that of the national GDP).In 2019, the number of domestic tourists in China reached 6.006 billion, an increase of 8.4% over the same period of last year; The total number of inbound and outbound tourists was 300 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; In the whole year, the total tourism revenue was 6.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%.The total comprehensive contribution of tourism to the national GDP is 10.94 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.05% of the total GDP.There are 28.25 million direct employment in tourism, and 79.87 million direct and indirect employment in tourism, accounting for 10.31% of the total employed population in China, which is the overall value of the historical stage of China's tourism development in the thirty or forty years before 2020.

 

Abrupt and mutated COVID-19 has inflict heavy losses on the global tourism economy. The tourism economy of poor countries such as Europe, America, Asia Pacific and Africa has fallen to the freezing point.The economic development of China's tourism industry has obviously regressed.

 

Although China's tourism investment and development has created countless dividends over the past few decades, hundreds of billions or even trillions of investment, more than 30000 scenic spots, more than 500000 hotel accommodation facilities, and countless tourism supporting related products are becoming more and more difficult to bear their weight.

 

 

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Since 2020, hundreds of thousands of Chinese tourism enterprises have closed down  and transformed.Especially for hotels and catering enterprises, their revenue rate has hovered around 30%-40% of the total revenue in 2019 for a long time, and the cost can not be recovered.Since the second half of 2021, the tourism industry in northern China to the north of the Yangtze River has suffered a comprehensive loss, and the tourism industry in southern China to the south of the Yangtze River is not much better.Taking Hainan health Island, the most important seaside resort destination, as an example, the total tourism revenue in 2021 will not exceed 40% of the total tourism revenue in 2019, which should be 30-40 billion yuan (Hainan's GDP in 2019 is more than 530 billion yuan, and the total tourism revenue is more than 100 billion yuan).

 

If there is no comprehensive income from real estate and tourism in Hainan Province, how will the state arrange and help the "Hainan free trade port of the world" tide over the difficulties?

 

COVID-19's epidemic is continuing. The new " Omicron " variant virus is fierce. So far, the new crown effect has not been as effective as expected. Any country that relies solely on vaccination to cope with mutating viruses is not a permanent solution.

 

If countries around the world can not open their doors at ease, international tourist exchanges and international tourism transactions will be reduced.Only relying on domestic demand to stimulate China's tourism industry will have a certain effect in the short term.We assume that the COVID-19 epidemic outside China is difficult to control and eliminate in two or three years. This is also the prediction of some experts.Even though China controlled and eliminated COVID-19 in 2022, I personally believe that China's tourism economy, which has already hurt its vitality, will not be able to fully revitalize and rise to the level of high light industry in the next three years.

 

On the other hand, China's economic development will still be disturbed by countries such as Britain and the United States, and encounter the troubles related to the virus epidemic that may be brought by these countries, which will also bring unpredictable delay and damage to the economic development of China and even the global tourism industry.

 

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China was once the world's largest outbound and third largest inbound tourist country. Without the prosperity of Chinese tourism, the development of world tourism economy is incomplete - this is also a great regret.

 

Both at present and in the future, developed countries attach great importance to "digital survival" and "high-tech development". However, the main elements of the tourism economy are catering, accommodation, transportation, tourism, shopping and entertainment. Without the meeting and communication between people and the direct interaction between people and things, the tourism industry can not be perfectly displayed.

 

Without the recovery and revitalization of tourism and tourism economy, the multi-ethnic culture of the world with bright stars will be dim.In a world without rich and colorful culture, the so-called omnipotent human planet may lack soul,blood and flesh.

 

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